Canada lynx mothers in the West depend on snowshoe hares as a primary food source for themselves and their kittens. Snowshoe hares depend on willows. Willows depend on the slow release of water from the winter snow pack that accumulates November to June. If the climate gets warmer and drier, it isn’t good for the willow, the hares, or for the lynx.

Development has already reduced habitat for many species to isolated islands. Now, the climate is quickly heating up. How long will the willow/hare/lynx food chain persist, say, in the southern Rocky Mountains? Can this interdependent community of species move somewhere else, perhaps higher up the mountains or further north? Even if it can migrate and overcome barriers like freeways, oil and gas development, farmlands, and deserts, will temperature belts remain coupled with precipitation belts, merely shifting up and north? Or will cool, dry climates—not good for hares and lynx—be more likely?

Paleontologists have shown that temperature and water patterns have varied independently in the Pleistocene. So even though connectivity initiatives like the Spine of the Continent provide the best extinction insurance against climate change, are north-south wildlands networks enough? This is the question we are now beginning to study.

The Center for Biodiversity Research & Information (CBRI) of the California Academy of Sciences (CAS) and The Wildlands Project are collaborating on a futuristic study of the fate of eight North American mammals. The goal is to predict where these animals will be able to thrive 50 or 100 years from now. We are starting with using a detailed understanding of the environmental conditions in which these animals now live.

Using data from natural history museum collections and observational records, we can precisely map known occurrences of plant and animals species such as lynxes, hares, and willows. By pinpointing exactly where a given species occurs, we can accurately characterize its habitat.

For example, at any specific location a lynx has been observed, we know the altitude, the ranges of temperature and precipitation, the vegetation cover, and many other environmental conditions. By combining these data for many places that lynxes have been observed, we can create an “environmental envelope” of conditions that lynxes need. Once we have carefully described the habitats where lynxes live, we can explore the fate of these habitats under alternative scenarios of climate change.

This year, the United Nations climate change experts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will produce the most up-to-date projections of climate change patterns for the globe. We will use this information to “perturb” (or challenge) our habitat models, and better understand where each species in the lynx/hare/willow community will find the conditions it needs to persist in the future. Almost certainly, their ranges will be predicted to shift which will be demonstrated with 3-D graphics and animations that are easily understood by all audiences.

This integrative approach to understanding the fate of species will enable us to update our Wildlands Network Designs with future core areas and connectivity zones based on the best science. In addition, the Wildlands Project, its partners, and CAS can better understand, plan for, and educate our audiences about these impending climate change patterns. We want to ensure against homeless critters.

Healy Hamilton, PhD, California Academy of Sciences, San Francisco, and Michael Soulé, PhD, Professor Emeritus, the University of California, Santa Cruz